The Lost Seoul to Detractors: The Yen Taketh Away

S&P is way up, but the JPY is keeping the KOSPI flat at best

Popular Press Has Caught Onto What Readers of this Blog Already Know

I receive a fair amount of ridicule from readers that have said that my observations regarding the JPY/KRW rate was a gift to Korea.  it was a gift that certain chaebol have used to build their competitiveness on the global stage.  However, that advantage is now gone: the KRW/JPY rate has returned to its pre-financial crisis levels.

Bank of Korea Had No Other Choice

The previous posts here suggested that the BOK had to act, and fast.  And they have.  Lower interest rates was the only choice that the BOK had.  There will be limits to the amount of flexibility available to the BOK.  It appears that we will learn how much progress the Korean economy has truly made.

 

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Tale of Three Pictures: Nikkei, KOSPI, and JPY/KRW

Toldya

This blog has taken some grief for its analysis regarding the Korean Won, the Japanese Yen, and the fact that Korean chaebol have done well in no small part due to the incredible Yen strength.

Let’s take a look, shall we?
The KOSPI hasn’t moved over this last two years.
Chart forKOSPI Composite Index (^KS11)

Now, this is the Nikkei (Japanese stock market), which is now at a 5-year high.
Chart forNIKKEI 225 (^N225)

And now, the punchline:  this is the KRW/JPY exchange rate.  The lower the number, the stronger the Korean Won, compared to the Japanese Yen.
Chart forJPY/KRW (JPYKRW=X)
The short story:  both economies are export-driven.  We can all say that LG/Samsung have left Sony in the dust, and that is true in LCD TVs.  However, this blog has reasoned that LG, Samsung and a few others have used the favorable exchange rate to make great profits, and use those funds for research and product development.  For Hyundai Heavy, POSCO, and other Korean companies where technological advancement is not the key input, the story will be more difficult.  The market agrees.  Don’t be surprised if we start seeing headlines over the next year that suggest that Toyota/Honda are growing while Hyundai/Kia are not.  We will see on that.

Dear Everyone, Double Toldya.  Signed, Bank of Korea.
Let me be clear: the Bank of Korea deserves an A-PLUS.  Look throughout this blog.  This should be no secret to the many readers of this blog.  The Bank of Korea has managed a very delicate situation, has used its rights to withhold premature judgement, and has acted to the benefit of the Korean economy and its citizens.  It has been, at certain times, lucky.  The Japanese Yen has been too strong for too long, for reasons that could not sustain themselves forever.

Now, the ball is dramatically back into the Bank of Korea’s court.  Instead of being passive, and waiting, it may actually need to lower rates.  It is the one instance when the domestic real estate situation (which must be called a small disaster) calls for it, and to weaken the Korean Won for the benefit of Korean chaebol.  Now, that doesn’t mean that the previous criticisms of the chaebol as written here are any different.  While Samsung Electronics, LG, and Hyundai/Kia have used the weak Won to enhance themselves tremendously on the global stage, other Korean chaebol have not.  So while this may seem like it is rewarded those unproductive chaebol, in a land of corporate governance and societal issues, the fact is that the Bank of Korea may need to move.  And soon.

 

Posted in $JPY, $KRW, Bank of Korea, Japan, Korean Economy, KOSPI | Leave a comment

SK Global: Is the Tide Turning on Corporate Governance in Korea?

Do Not Pass Go.  Do Not Collect $200.
SK Group now-ex-chairman Chey Tay-Won was convicted of embezzlement and ordered directly to jail for 4 yours.  Just wow.  This blog has reported and comment on this issue, many times, in the past.  This isn’t the first time that this has happened in Korea, nor is it the first time that Mr. Chey and SK has become familiar with the Korean penal system.  In fact, the amount of money embezzled is small in scale compared to the past infraction of huge accounting abnormalities at SK Energy, for which  Mr Chey has served a 1 year jail sentence.  It is a little-known fact that the Korean government chose to not prosecute Mr Chey to the fullest extent possible at that time; the most -likely reason is that the government believed that the Korean economy was too weak to take such a massive blow.

One Small Step
This blog has taken risks by pointing out these irregularities.  This money has been taken, in effect, by Mr Chey (alone, without anyone else’s knowledge whatsoever? Uh, no, is a very good guess), from the owners of SK: shareholders of the equity.  Who is that?  Foreign investors, who largely live in jurisdictions where 4 years is small compared to the penalty in their home countries.  Who is that?  Koreans, who own mutual funds or have rights to pensions, that have invested in SK. While it is true that in other nations, this would mean the end of Mr Chey’s professional life, he has survived in the past.

Board of Directors and Influential Shareholders
The only way for those that have taken from everyday Koreans, in such a blatant fashion, is for the Board of Directors and influential shareholders, such as the National Pension Fund and the Korea Investment Fund, to take a stand and prevent this from occurring in the future. Board of Directors should not merely be hand-picked by the founding family of a corporation, and the influential investors must block any such proposal, as is their right. The Korean justice system has stepped forward, and given Boards of Directors and influential shareholders the ammunition required to wage such a war against this type of activity. In this small way, the financial benefits from Korea’s rise in the global economy can be distributed as capitalism intends, and not solely to the few, who don’t share in the financial risk.

Not That Simple
Mr Chey cannot be stupid, of course. Strictly speaking, he is highly educated. The argument can be that the CEO of such a large, successful corporation should be highly compensated, and it is factually correct that a CEO of a corporation in the U.S. or Europe would earn far more than Mr Chey has. That, however, is the for the board of directors and ultimately the shareholders to approve. How Korean companies reach that objective cannot be reasonably foreseen at this time. Mr Chey will have four years to consider how that path can be traveled.

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DID ANYTHING HAPPEN WHILST I WAS ON BREAK?

Back and Better Than Ever….
Ya take a little time off, and a few things have occurred, right up the Seoul Gyopo Guide’s alley….
1. Some bird got elected to be the President of Korea, and in the most ironic of twists, she probably represents the greatest juxtaposition of recent Korean history, economics, and gender that someone could possibly imagine. WOW WOW WOW (Settle down if you a woman over the use the word “bird,” which means female in Britain.)
2. Some dude totally failed logic in the U.S., and it lost him a win-able election. Oh, he also failed math. Oh, he has a Harvard MBA. The winner just did what he was supposed to do, despite himself. And the mayor of Chicago sat there, saying to himself, “I would never have let it come to this. It would’ve been over MONTHS ago.”
3. Some nutbag jumping around singing a meaningless song, in a nation that probably wins the “best collective nation at singing” contest in the world, created the most-watched video EVER on YouTube. Wonder how the musically-gifted in Korea (there are many) get a full-night’s sleep?
4. Korean companies did their annual, year-end, productivity-seeping, economically useless, chair shuffle, as shareholders watched the KOSPI lower by 15% compared to the 2012 high.
5. Housing in Gangnam has slid EVEN MORE (as predicted here), with policy solutions not helping. It is now too late. Over.
6. Don’t look now, but the Japanese Yen is MUCH CHEAPER now compared to the Korean Won, at exactly the wrong time.

Happy New Year, I gotta get writing….

Posted in Bank of Korea, Business, Korea, Korean Economy, Korean Society, KOSPI, South Korea, TV, USA | Leave a comment

Protected: This Just In: Ratings Agencies Are Useless. Look at Korea.

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